FOUNDER
JOHN PAUL SMITH
John-Paul Smith has over 35 years' market experience including roles as:
EMERGING MARKET EQUITY STRATEGIST
MORGAN STANLEY
Widely credited as being the first analyst to predict the 1998 Russian financial crisis.
1995-2001
HEAD OF EM EQUITY & CHIEF STRATEGIST
PICTET ASSET MANAGEMENT
Managed & developed the EM equity team, achieving top decile performance and a rise in AUM from less than $2bn to over $10bn, followed by four years as the firm's Chief Global Strategist across asset classes.
2001-2010
EQUITY STRATEGIST
DEUTSCHE BANK
Predicted the multi-year outperformance of US equities and index funds against emerging market equities and other 'alternative' asset classes such as commodities and hedge funds.
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FOUNDER ECSTRAT 2014-2020
Global equity market strategy focusing on emerging markets
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FOUNDER JPSSTRATEGY 2022
Global strategy focusing on the impact of secular governance related themes on global financial markets and vice versa
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2010-2014
JP's methodology has been acclaimed by the financial press and its work is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, Bloomberg & Economist
Founder
PRESS MENTIONS
Bloomberg, October 2017
Why This Stock Bear Sees No Hope for Emerging Markets
"The founder of research firm Ecstrat Ltd., renowned for his early warning of Russia’s equity-market plunge in 1998 while at Morgan Stanley, is finding plenty of places to direct his pessimism. Among his latest concerns: authoritarian regimes in China and Russia as well as governments in Thailand, Turkey and the Philippines shifting in that direction.”
BEN BARTENSTEIN
Financial Times, May 2017
An investment taxonomy that actually makes sense
“Fascinating new research by JP Smith at EcStrat consultancy has produced a new taxonomy which divides investment markets into nine different governance regimes. They make a very useful guide to investing.”
JOHN AUTHERS
The Economist, October 2014
The bear case for EM
“Given all this, it is worth contemplating an interesting summary of the bearish RM case from John Paul Smith at Ecstrat. At Deutsche, he was known as that rare, but honourable, character; the strategist who wasn’t bullish on his own sector.”
BUTTONWOOD’S NOTEBOOK